Description
StochDedicationBL.gms: Stochastic Dedication model with borrowing and lending variables. Consiglio, Nielsen and Zenios. PRACTICAL FINANCIAL OPTIMIZATION: A Library of GAMS Models, Section 6.2.2 Last modified: Apr 2008.
Category : GAMS FIN library
Mainfile : StochDedicationBL.gms includes : BondData.inc SpotRates.inc FactorData.inc
$TITLE Stochastic Dedication model with borrowing and lending variables
* StochDedicationBL.gms: Stochastic Dedication model with borrowing and lending variables.
* Consiglio, Nielsen and Zenios.
* PRACTICAL FINANCIAL OPTIMIZATION: A Library of GAMS Models, Section 6.2.2
* Last modified: Apr 2008.
SETS
Time Time periods /2001 * 2011/
Scenarios Set of scenarios /SS_1 * SS_150/;
ALIAS (Scenarios, l, ll);
ALIAS (Time, t, t1, t2);
SCALARS
Now Current year
Horizon End of the Horizon;
Now = 2001;
Horizon = CARD(t)-1;
PARAMETER
tau(t) Time in years;
* Note: time starts from 0
tau(t) = ORD(t)-1;
SET
Bonds Bonds universe
/DS-8-06, DS-8-03, DS-7-07,
DS-7-04, DS-6-11, DS-6-09,
DS-6-02, DS-5-05, DS-5-03, DS-4-02/;
SET
Factors Term structure factors
/FF_1, FF_2, FF_3/;
ALIAS(Bonds, i);
ALIAS(Factors, j);
SCALAR
spread Borrowing spread over the reinvestment rate;
PARAMETERS
Price(i) Implied bond prices
Coupon(i) Coupons
Maturity(i) Maturities
Liability(t) Stream of liabilities
rf(t) Reinvestment rates
F(t,i) Cashflows;
* Bond data. Prices, coupons and maturities from the Danish market
$INCLUDE "BondData.inc"
$INCLUDE "FactorData.inc"
PARAMETER
beta(j,t) Factor loadings;
* Transpose factor loadings
beta(j,t) = betaTrans(t,j);
* Copy/transform data. Note division by 100 to get unit data, and
* subtraction of "Now" from Maturity date (so consistent with tau):
Coupon(i) = BondData(i,"Coupon")/100;
Maturity(i) = BondData(i,"Maturity") - Now;
* Calculate the ex-coupon cashflow of Bond i in year t:
F(t,i) = 1$(tau(t) = Maturity(i))
+ coupon(i) $ (tau(t) <= Maturity(i) and tau(t) > 0);
rf(t) = 0.04;
spread = 0.02;
PARAMETER
Liability(t) Liabilities
/2002 = 80000, 2003 = 100000, 2004 = 110000, 2005 = 120000,
2006 = 140000, 2007 = 120000, 2008 = 90000, 2009 = 50000,
2010 = 75000, 2011 = 150000/;
* Read spot rates
PARAMETER r(t)
/
$ONDELIM
$INCLUDE "SpotRates.inc"
$OFFDELIM
/;
* Generate spot rate scenarios, Sr(t,s), using factors from FactorData.inc .
PARAMETER
Sr(t,l) Spot rate scenarios;
PARAMETER
FactorWeights(j,l) Weights of each factor under each scenario
/FF_1.SS_1*SS_50 0.01, FF_1.SS_51*SS_100 -0.02, FF_1.SS_101*SS_150 0.04,
FF_2.SS_1*SS_50 0.02, FF_2.SS_51*SS_100 0.01, FF_2.SS_101*SS_150 0.01,
FF_3.SS_1*SS_50 -0.01, FF_3.SS_51*SS_100 -0.01, FF_3.SS_101*SS_150 -0.02/;
PARAMETERS
pr(l) Scenario probability;
pr(l) = 1.0 / CARD(l);
* Generate stochastic cashflows and liabilities, over a scenario set.
* For this simple model they are randomly generated, but in a real-life
* model they would depend on e.g., prepayment/lapse models, models for
* options and derivatives, etc. etc.
PARAMETERS
Srf(t,l) Scenarios of short term rates
SF(t,i,l) Scenarios of cashflows
SFactorWeights(j, l) Scenarios of factor weights
SLiability(t,l) Scenarios of liabilities;
* Note: The cashflows generated may be negative, modeling complicated derivatives
SF(t,i,l) = F(t,i) * uniform(0.6, 2.0);
SFactorWeights('FF_1', l) = FactorWeights('FF_1',l) * uniform(0.8, 1.4);
SFactorWeights('FF_2', l) = FactorWeights('FF_2',l) * uniform(0.9, 1.1);
SFactorWeights('FF_3', l) = FactorWeights('FF_3',l) * uniform(0.95, 1.05);
SLiability(t,l) = Liability(t) * uniform(0.8, 1.4);
Srf(t,l) = rf(t) * uniform(0.8, 1.2);
Sr(t,l)$(r(t) <> 0) = r(t) + SUM(j, SFactorWeights(j, l) * beta(j,t));
SF('2001',i,l) = SUM(t, SF(t,i,l) * exp (- Sr(t,l) * tau(t)) );
* Implied market price
Price(i) = ( 1.0 / CARD(l) ) * SUM(l, SF('2001',i,l) );
DISPLAY SF, SLiability, Srf;
POSITIVE VARIABLES
x(i) Face value purchased
surplus(t,l) Amount of money reinvested
borrow(t,l) Amount of money borrowed;
VARIABLE
v0 Upfront investment;
EQUATION
CashFlowCon(t,l) Equations defining the cashflow balance;
CashFlowCon(t,l) .. SUM(i, SF(t,i,l) * x(i)) $ (tau(t) > 0 ) +
( v0 - SUM(i, Price(i) * x(i)) ) $ (tau(t) = 0) +
( (1 + Srf(t-1,l)) * surplus(t-1,l) ) $ (tau(t) > 0) +
borrow(t,l) $ (tau(t) < Horizon) =E=
surplus(t,l) + SLiability(t,l) $ (tau(t) > 0) +
(( 1 + Srf(t-1,l) + spread ) * borrow(t-1,l)) $ (tau(t) > 0);
MODEL StochDedicationBL 'PFO Model 6.4.2' /CashFlowCon/;
SOLVE StochDedicationBL MINIMIZING v0 USING LP;
DISPLAY x.l;